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Blackstone Earnings Rise 48% in Q3, Driven by CRE Sales

Signs of a CRE recovery are emerging, and Blackstone is getting in early.

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Good morning. Blackstone just posted a 48% jump in earnings after unloading $7.3B in real estate last quarter. With interest rates dropping, the firm says CRE is entering a new phase of recovery.

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🎙️This Week on No Cap: We get an insider’s look at multifamily’s policy future with NMHC President Sharon Wilson Géno, covering today’s biggest legislative wins, looming battles, and what’s really at stake for owners and renters.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
6,791.69
Pct Chg:
+0.79%
FTSE NAREIT
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Pct Chg:
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10Y Treasury
TNX
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SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.18%
Pct Chg:
-0.00
*Data as of 10/24/2025 market close.

Market Inflection

Blackstone Earnings Rise 48% in Q3, Driven by CRE Sales

The Blackstone Inc. headquarters in New York. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

After a prolonged slowdown, private equity giant Blackstone says CRE is hitting its recovery stride, fueled by falling interest rates and renewed investor appetite.

Big profits, bigger moves: Blackstone’s Q3 distributable earnings surged 48% to $1.9B, beating expectations with $1.52/share vs. $1.23 projected. The firm sold $7.3B in CRE and invested $3.6B, contributing to $30B in total realizations. Despite the gains, revenue dipped slightly to $3.09B and net income fell to $624.9M from $780.8M a year earlier.

The “deal dam” breaks: Blackstone President Jon Gray says the “deal dam is breaking” as transactions rebound across real estate and private equity. With rates trending down after a September Fed cut—and more likely coming—capital markets are thawing. Gray pointed to improved liquidity, rising IPOs, and a 25% year-to-date jump in CMBS volume.

CRE rebound: Blackstone sees a market inflection point, with its Real Estate Income Trust posting three straight quarters of gains and redemptions at a 3.5-year low. Slowing construction in key sectors like warehouses and multifamily is expected to boost asset values amid tightening supply.

Private credit’s shifting outlook:  Private credit drove $35.9B in Q3 inflows alongside insurance, but falling rates may make high yields harder to sustain. Gray defended the segment’s strength, citing low defaults and a resilient loan book.

Riding the AI wave: Blackstone is doubling down on data centers amid soaring AI demand. Gray highlighted long-term leases with strong tenants, and a global leasing pipeline that’s doubled since Q2. CEO Schwarzman called it part of a push into “markets of enormous potential,” like energy and AI infrastructure.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Ahead of the curve: Blackstone sees a “steeper” recovery ahead for CRE as capital loosens and investor confidence returns. With rate cuts opening the spigot for deals, data centers booming, and retail capital expanding, the private equity titan is positioning to strike before the rest of the market catches up.


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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Healthcare investment: Dolfin Partners funded $30M in tenant improvements and equipment for a Newport Beach cancer center, supporting long-term operational growth. (sponsored)

  • CRE showdown: In a World Series-style CRE matchup, Los Angeles tops Toronto with stronger performance in most sectors despite industrial weakness. 

  • Global footprint: Hines will launch operations in Riyadh next year, targeting industrial, office, and mixed-use projects in Saudi Arabia’s fast-growing real estate market. 

  • Lenders realign: Private-credit funds gained ground while banks lost market share in a busier-than-expected U.S. real estate debt market.

  • Digital dynasty: Family offices in North America are embracing AI and succession planning while taking a cautious investment stance amid 2025’s uncertainty.

  • Record year: CBRE raised its annual earnings forecast after Q3 revenue jumped 14%, fueled by booming data center demand and a rebound in office leasing. 

  • Data freeze: With key government stats offline and ADP cutting access, the Fed faces growing economic uncertainty with limited data to guide policy. 

  • Peace proposal: Kushner and Witkoff are proposing a $50B Gaza rebuild, blending diplomacy and real estate expertise to attract global investment.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Flat heat: Multifamily demand is running hot with strong absorption, but high vacancies and cooling rent growth are keeping landlords from capitalizing.

  • Conversion craze: Adaptive reuse hit a record in 2024 with nearly 25,000 new apartments delivered, led by hotel and office conversions. 

  • Market entry: Federated Hermes is taking an 80% stake in FCP to expand its private markets reach and enter U.S. multifamily. 

  • Affordably strong: Affordable housing operators saw NOI rise 5.6% in 2025 thanks to slowing expenses and steady income gains. 

  • Refi round: Sentinel landed a $67.5M Fannie Mae loan to refi its recently acquired 386-unit Rockwell at Crown property in Gaithersburg, MD. 

  • Survival mode: Landlords are advised to stay patient, communicate clearly, and prepare for subsidy delays as the government shutdown threatens Section 8 rent payments.

🏭 Industrial

  • Sector reset: U.S. industrial demand surged to 60M SF in Q3 2025 while new construction hit a seven-year low. 

  • Data backbone: AI and cloud growth are reshaping data center demand, favoring energy-efficient, inference-focused facilities over speculative generative AI builds.

  • Tariff tailwind: Tariffs and reshoring are driving industrial growth in the South and boosting East Coast logistics. 

  • Mega loan: Madison Realty Capital has provided $654M in financing to 2020 Acquisitions for its 4.1M SF Central 9 Logistics Park in Old Bridge, NJ.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Retail rush: Retail rents in North Dallas suburbs like Frisco, Celina, and Prosper are hitting $50/SF as high-income demographics and construction costs fuel demand.

  • Bargain shopping: Namdar Realty is buying Chicago’s One North State retail space for $8.3M, down from $54.5M in 2004.

  • Strategic buy: Michael Comras is set to buy a Lincoln Road retail portfolio for $140M — less than half its 2014 value — as the area begins a comeback.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Y'all street: Wells Fargo’s $570M North Texas campus cements DFW’s rise as a national financial hub.

  • Office underdogs: Smaller markets like Nashville, Columbus, and Salt Lake City are leading the office sector’s quiet rebound, with Class A spaces outperforming. 

  • Office optimist: CEO John Santora says WeWork is back with stable leadership, rising occupancy, and a renewed belief in in-person work.

  • Grand expansion: Green Street Advisors is growing its NYC footprint, tacking on 7K more square feet at Marx Realty’s 10 Grand Central. 

  • Suite addition: Premier Workspaces opened a new coworking site in El Segundo, expanding its LA-area presence to 31 locations.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Revised outlook: Wyndham is lowering its 2025 outlook after a soft Q3, but is betting on pipeline growth and new loyalty perks to regain momentum.

  • Fraud fallout: LuxUrban Hotels collapsed into Chapter 7 liquidation amid fraud claims, unpaid taxes, and $123M in debts.

  • Waldorf reborn: After eight years and $2B, the iconic Waldorf Astoria has reopened with luxury condos, lavish amenities, and a design that blends history with high-end living.


📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Investor risk appetite has hit a two-decade high, as margin debt and leveraged ETF exposure relative to money supply signal a market fueled by optimism, but vulnerable to sudden shocks.

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