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CMBS Maturities Hit $23B Wall—But It’s No Longer Just ‘Extend and Pretend’
Over $23B in CMBS loans have missed maturity without resolution, up from near zero in 2019.
Jordan B.
July 31, 2025
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Good morning. A growing wave of unresolved debt is clogging the CMBS market, with $23B in delinquent loans nearing maturity and no clear path forward. CRE is facing a standstill as borrowers delay decisions and lenders hesitate to act.
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Market Snapshot
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Maturity Wall
Trepp: CMBS Maturities Face $23B Reckoning
A growing segment of CMBS loans is grinding to a halt, with billions lingering unresolved well past their due dates.
Stalled at maturity: According to Trepp, over $23B in CMBS loans have missed maturity without resolution, up from near zero in 2019. Now making up 75% of all CMBS delinquencies, many of these loans still pay interest, signaling broader market dysfunction, not just borrower distress.
Why the delay? Trepp identifies three primary forces behind this “maturity drag”:
Slow Price Discovery: With fundamental shifts like remote work and high rates, office values in particular remain a moving target. Sparse transactions and a lack of benchmark clarity make repricing guesswork.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Lingering questions about Fed rate paths, tariffs, inflation, and global demand are paralyzing stakeholders on both sides of the debt equation.
Execution Paralysis: Even when consensus is reached, deal complexity, reputational risk, and operational bottlenecks make resolving loans a slog, especially in a high-rate environment.
Sector strain: Office loans are especially exposed, showing the highest baseline risk of delay even after controlling for fundamentals. Multifamily isn’t far behind, while retail and lodging show more stability.
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Changing credit metrics: Traditionally, the DSCR was a strong predictor of maturity risk. That’s shifting. Now, debt yield—a measure of long-term income potential—has become the more telling metric. Trepp’s data shows that even strong DSCR loans are increasingly stalling if their debt yields are weak.
Frozen by the Fed: The economy grew 3% in Q2, but with inflation elevated and tariffs looming, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Rising 10-year Treasury yields (4.36%) are compounding the issue, making refinancing costly for loans originated during the low-rate era. Many borrowers are opting to wait, further stalling resolutions.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Holding the line: Despite rising distress, a full-blown CRE credit crisis hasn’t emerged—yet. Lenders are quietly extending terms or avoiding forced sales, with private credit filling some gaps. But as delays spread, the market’s future hinges on whether stalled loans adapt or end in forced losses.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
Clarity protects your capital: Incomplete data means missed risks and lost opportunities. Acres gives you complete land intelligence—so you can make confident land investment decisions. (sponsored)
Rate rifts: The Fed held rates steady, but internal splits emerged as two officials pushed for a cut.
Housing reform: The Senate Banking Committee has unanimously advanced the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act of 2025, a sweeping legislative package aimed at boosting housing supply.
Image makeover: WeWork’s new “WeWork for Business” campaign repositions the company as a serious office provider, shedding its party-startup past.
Fraud exposure: Merchants Bancorp saw Q2 earnings cut in half after uncovering widespread mortgage fraud in its multifamily loan portfolio.
Price slowdown: US home-price growth slowed for the fourth straight month in May, rising just 2.3% annually.
Brokerage boom: CBRE posted a 47% jump in Q2 earnings, fueled by stronger-than-expected sales, leasing gains, and revived investor activity.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
Distressed pivot: JBG Smith is shifting from multifamily to office investments, betting on steep discounts and long-term upside in distressed assets.
DC Deals: Multifamily sales in Washington, DC soared 950% in Q2 to $646M, led by major institutional deals.
Classic buy: Concord Capital acquired five iconic pre-war apartment buildings in Los Angeles for $79M, adding 537 units to its portfolio.
Support slashed: LA is cutting key rental subsidies despite new tax revenue, straining shelters and risking a rise in street homelessness.
Density debate: A new Texas law allows multifamily development by right in commercial zones, but big cities are already pushing back.
🏭 Industrial
Sweet expansion: Mars Inc. will invest $2B in U.S. manufacturing by the end of 2026, including a new Nature’s Bakery facility in Salt Lake City.
Industrial flip: Link Logistics sold a fully leased Roseville industrial park to NorthPoint for $96.3M, nearly doubling its 2018 purchase price.
Power projects: The DOE has picked four federal sites for AI data centers and power plants, kickstarting a public-private push to strengthen US tech and energy infrastructure.
Protein push: Pilgrim’s is building a $400M Georgia plant to meet rising protein demand and expand cooked chicken production.
🏬 RETAIL
Property pickup: CBL Properties is buying four mid-tier malls for $179M, signaling renewed investor confidence in non-luxury retail.
Sears setback: The recently reopened Sears in Burbank is reportedly closing again, leaving the once-dominant retailer with just three remaining US locations.
Texas trade: Brixmor Property Group acquired LaCenterra at Cinco Ranch in Katy, TX, for $223M, marking one of Houston’s largest retail trades this year.
Segment split: Grocery-anchored and net lease assets led a stable retail market in Q2, while regional malls struggled with closures and tariff risks.
🏢 OFFICE
Market caution: Single-tenant office sales fell 56% YoY in Q125 as vacancies, leasing slowdowns, and loan maturities strained investor confidence.
Going vertical: BXP has started vertical construction on 343 Madison Avenue, a $2B, 930K SF fully electric office tower in Midtown Manhattan.
Optimistic outlook: Kilroy Realty is capitalizing on renewed West Coast demand, executing nearly $450M in office sales and leasing 425K SF in Q2.
Safety response: NY office buildings ramped up security after a mass shooting at 345 Park Avenue left four dead, prompting a citywide reassessment of safety protocols.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
Resort launch: The $141M Embassy Suites Gulf Shores Beach Resort has opened with 257 suites, event space, and beachfront dining.
Hotel conversions: Sage Investment Group is converting underused hotels into affordable workforce studios, targeting 13 projects in 2025 across six states.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Markets building the most apartments are seeing rents fall, while low-construction areas face rising rents, clearly illustrating that increasing housing supply is the most effective, data-backed way to improve affordability.
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