Commercial Mortgages Signal Banking Strains in CRE

What Mortgage Bonds Say About the Office Meltdown

The U.S. office market's distress, especially in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), signals looming troubles in bank loan portfolios, implying that the challenges caused by poor office loans are just beginning.

What happened: Banks in the U.S. are a major source of commercial real-estate loans, holding about 50% of all such loans. However, the health of these loans often remains unclear until problems become acute. Recent cases like New York Community Bancorp and Aozora Bank, which set aside massive provisions for expected losses on U.S. office loans, highlight the emerging crisis. Their share prices plummeted as a result, signaling trouble ahead for the lending sector.

The proxy: Commercial mortgage-backed securities, making up 14% of U.S. commercial real estate lending, offer valuable insights into the sector's health. The CMBS market provides detailed monthly data on default rates and property valuations, revealing a worrying trend: only 26% of the $35.8 billion in office CMBS loans that matured in 2023 were fully paid off as borrowers struggled to refinance or sell their properties.

Rising distress: The CMBS market is witnessing a rapid increase in troubled loans. By January's end, 10.5% of office CMBS debt was distressed, a more than 3x increase from the previous year, reports CRED iQ. The situation will likely worsen with an additional $46.6 billion in CMBS office loans maturing through 2025. Recent revaluations of such properties have shown an average valuation decline of 40%, further worsening the issue.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Bracing for impact: While banks' loan books might not mirror the dire situation of CMBS loans, they are not immune to the real estate sector's downturn. The upcoming maturity of loans poses a risk of unforeseen setbacks for bank shareholders. Moreover, the growing trend of office buildings selling at significant discounts will increasingly affect loan valuations, signaling a challenging reality check for banks.

Deep-Pocketed Investors Seize Opportunities in CRE Turmoil

Turmoil in the U.S. CRE market has created an opportunity for investors with cash reserves as owners face difficulties extending loans. 

Bursting at the seams: Investors have been amassing funds since the pandemic's onset, anticipating a market downturn. Their patience is starting to pay off as soaring interest rates have left many property owners, especially those with floating-rate debts, struggling to meet higher service costs. This financial strain is most evident in sectors like office buildings, hotels, and apartments.

Feeling the heat: Investors with significantliquidity are now actively acquiring these distressed properties or offering rescue capital for preferred returns. Notable players include Ares Management and RXR, which are targeting notable investments in office space and senior debt. Simultaneously, private equity firms have accumulated a record $544 billion in global real-estate funds, primed for opportunistic investments.

On the rise: The distress in CRE is increasing, with financially troubled assets and those taken over by lenders reaching $85.8B by the end of 2023. Analysts predict distress will continue to rise as owners need to refinance over $2.2T in commercial mortgages set to mature by the end of 2027.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Looking forward: The rise in distressed sales offers hope for stabilizing the market and provides an avenue for determining new values. As distressed deals rise, new pricing will emerge. Big players in the industry are getting involved, such as SL Green Realty (SLG), who are planning to raise a $1B opportunistic debt fund. Despite the pain caused by higher rates, available capital from various sources and owner ’ willingness to salvage deals provide some hope.

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Shoutout to Reid Bennett for finding and sharing this chart with us!