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CRE Debt Wave Eases As New Loan Activity Rebounds

CRE Debt Wave Eases As New Loan Activity Rebounds

$875B in property debt comes due this year, but lenders are stepping back into the market as originations climb.

Nina Dale
February 12, 2026

Together with

Good morning. The long-feared CRE “maturity wall” is starting to look more manageable. While $875B in commercial and multifamily debt comes due this year, a sharp rebound in loan originations suggests capital is flowing again.

Today’s issue is sponsored by Cash Flow Portal—the all-in-one platform helping fund teams run end-to-end operations without spreadsheets or stress.

🎙️Worth a listen: This week on No Cap, Trimont CEO Bill Sexton explains the inner workings of CRE loan servicing and why the credit cycle is already shifting.

CRE Trivia 🧠

Which Olympic host city converted its Olympic Village into one of the largest residential redevelopment projects in Europe?

(Answer at the bottom of the newsletter)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,941.47

Pct Chg:
-0.005%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

808.10

Pct Chg:
+0.38%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.172%

Pct Chg:
+0.027

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

3.66%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 2/11/2026 market close.

Maturity Wall

CRE Debt Wave Eases As New Loan Activity Rebounds

After years of bracing for a wall of maturities, the commercial real estate market may finally be catching its breath.

By the numbers: Commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities are projected to drop 9% in 2026 to $875B, down from $957B last year, according to the MBA, with annual totals expected to keep declining through 2031. Though, as Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni noted, the maturity wall is shorter but still sizable.

Originations rebound: As maturities ease, lending is rebounding. Loan originations are expected to jump 27% to more than $805B this year, with lenders increasingly financing refinancings and discounted sales after extending loans to avoid losses.

Office still under strain: Trouble hasn’t cleared evenly across sectors. In office, $167B in mortgages are slated to mature in 2026, followed by $123B in 2027 and $76B in 2028. The MBA expects delinquencies tied to older-vintage loans to rise as those maturities hit.

Signs of thawing: Market sentiment improved late last year, with CBRE reporting higher loan volumes and larger deals in Q4. U.S. CRE investment totaled $499B in 2025, up 22% YoY, though the firm says the lending market remains bifurcated—strong in some areas, strained in others.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Capital shift: The debt wall isn’t gone, but it is shrinking. As maturities ease and originations rise, 2026 looks more like a transition year than a cliff, though office exposure and legacy loans will keep lenders selective.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

From model to market: Henry transforms your raw underwriting into investor-ready OMs, BOVs, and loan packages—built from your data, human-reviewed, and ready to send in minutes. (sponsored)
Servicing stress: CMBS special servicing rates are rising heading into 2026, signaling mounting distress as borrowers struggle with refinancing amid higher rates and weaker fundamentals.
REIT repositioning: KREF is planning a year of asset sales, loan modifications, and balance-sheet repositioning as it works through legacy office exposure and credit challenges.
Stability signals: Cap rates plateaued in H2 2025 across U.S. property types, signaling the end of a pricing reset and hinting at selective compression ahead as market stability returns.
Talent turnaround: CRE hiring bounced back in 2025, led by finance and investment roles as deal activity and compensation trends improved.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Rule reversal: The FHFA’s rollback of fair housing oversight rules has sparked both praise and backlash, reshaping compliance expectations for multifamily lenders and owners.
Build bottleneck: Saint-Gobain warns that affordability pressures, labor shortages and regulatory hurdles continue to constrain U.S. housing supply despite strong demand.
Golden state: A new apartment venture is betting on California’s long-term fundamentals, even as rent growth, regulation and insurance costs challenge near-term returns.
Class gains: Class A multifamily outperformed lower tiers with stronger rent growth and occupancy, suggesting capital may concentrate in newer assets amid uneven fundamentals.

🏭 Industrial

Digital yield: Brookfield-backed Compass Datacenters is raising $830M by securitizing hyperscale assets leased to Big Tech, underscoring strong investor appetite for digital infrastructure.
Last mile: Greystar is expanding into shallow-bay industrial with a Nashville JV, targeting small-format logistics demand tied to population and e-commerce growth.
Industrial ambitions: Matterhorn Venture Partners and TPG Angelo Gordon launched a $900M JV to acquire and reposition value-add industrial properties across the Chicago area and the Midwest.
Tariff recovery: U.S. industrial sales rose 12% in Q4 2025, fueled by renewed leasing, data center demand, and post-tariff stability.

🏬 RETAIL

Value upgrade: Dollar Tree is pushing into wealthier neighborhoods and higher-income shoppers as it evolves its store base and merchandising strategy.
Anchor exit: Neiman Marcus will close at Boston’s Copley Place, clearing the way for Simon to redevelop the space as part of a broader mall transformation.
Brand reinvention: L.L. Bean is investing $50M to modernize its Maine flagship store, signaling confidence in experiential retail and brand-driven destinations.
Storefront strength: Retail is outperforming other CRE asset classes in California, buoyed by limited new supply, strong tenant demand and improving fundamentals.

🏢 OFFICE

Exit uncertainty: Blackstone may face challenges exiting its Willis Tower investment as Chicago office valuations remain under pressure.
Recovery probe: A loan tied to a historic San Francisco office tower hitting the market will serve as a litmus test for the city’s office recovery.
Value hunting: A Chicago buyer’s $132M office purchase highlights deep distress-driven pricing while signaling selective investor confidence in prime assets.
Office repricing: Falling office valuations are bringing sidelined capital back, lifting transaction volume as buyers underwrite stabilized pricing and target discounted assets.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Leisure boom: Strong leisure and luxury travel demand boosted Marriott’s year-end performance, reinforcing hotels as a bright spot in CRE.
Stock rebound: Hotel stocks started 2026 in positive territory, reflecting optimism around travel demand and revenue growth.
Capital commitment: Tidal Lands secured $372M for a major downtown Nashville hotel and residential project, underscoring continued investor faith in high-growth Sun Belt markets.

INVESTOR SENTIMENT

Is CRE Turning Cautious or Leaning Back In?

Where is CRE sentiment heading next? Take our 5-minute Fear & Greed Survey and help shape the data investors are watching across sectors.

Responses are 100% anonymous, and you’ll get early access to the results.

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Five major U.S. markets, led by San Diego and L.A., are set to hit peak apartment supply between 2026 and 2027.

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

London (2012), where the Olympic Village was redeveloped into Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, delivering thousands of new homes and a major long-term mixed-use district in East London.

CRE Debt Wave Eases As New Loan Activity Rebounds

$875B in property debt comes due this year, but lenders are stepping back into the market as originations climb.