CRE Lending Set to Surge Past 2024 Levels

Together with

Good morning. A strong first half for securitized and agency loans points to a bullish 2025 for commercial real estate debt markets. Plus, liquidity is returning, fundraising is reviving, and Brookfield is betting big on high-quality assets.

Today’s issue is brought to you by Warespace—the next generation of small-bay industrial.

Join James Nelson (Avison Young) and No Cap podcast hosts Jack Stone and Alexander Gornik for a LinkedIn LIVE this Thursday at 12 PM ET as they break down what’s driving commercial real estate investment in 2025.

Market Snapshot

LENDING MARKET

TOGETHER WITH WARESPACE

We’re deploying $500M to acquire industrial properties

WareSpace is the next generation of small-bay industrial—co-warehousing designed for small and growing businesses. One simple monthly payment covers everything: property tax, utilities, equipment, racking, shared-kitchens, conference rooms, etc. The kind of features small businesses actually want.

We’re actively acquiring flex, industrial, office, and big box retail properties (50K–250K SF) with $500M in capital ready to deploy.

We’re targeting:

• Immediate or near-term vacancies

• Class A–C assets with loading docks or drive-ins

• Transitional properties that need capex

All-cash closings. Fast timelines. And now offering a $1/SF broker bonus on every deal. Yes, you read that right—$1 per square foot as a direct broker incentive, on top of standard market commissions.

Offer valid for all deals closed before 12/31/25.

Have a deal? Send it to VP of Acquisitions, Jeff Jenkins at [email protected].

We close fast, pay cash, and move quickly. Let’s make a deal!

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

• Smart reporting: Keyway has launched a new AI-powered platform to streamline and standardize rent roll and T12 analysis. (exclusive)

• Brookfield is bullish: After years of sluggish activity, mega property deals are finally returning, says Brookfield’s freshly appointed real estate chief.

• YIMBY vision: Pro-housing advocates say zoning reforms like single-stair rules can increase density and improve building aesthetics.

• Small bets: As high rates sideline traditional buyers, small investors are snapping up a record share of single-family homes. 

• Spring slump: The US housing market has just suffered its slowest spring in 13 years, as uncertainty and high costs have frozen buyers. 

• Profit dip: Home sellers averaged a 50% profit in Q225, down from last year but still strong by historical standards. 

• Debt shift: The Trump administration is shaking up traditional Treasury borrowing practices by delaying long-term bond issuance in hopes of lower rates.

• Agency dysfunction: Senators warn that leadership gaps and budget cuts at the Appraisal Subcommittee risk destabilizing the real estate appraisal system.

• Rent stretch: A $1,500 rental budget goes farthest in the Midwest and South while barely covering 200 SF in Manhattan.  

• Housing reform: A new bipartisan Senate bill targets zoning reform and supply boosts to ease the housing affordability crisis.

• Athlete deal: Kris Humphries’ Casey Capital bought a 64-unit Eagan apartment complex for $9.9M, marking a 17% value gain since its 2020 sale.

• Asset grab: JPMorgan bought a Midtown NYC rental tower for $243.5M, deepening its bet on multifamily.

• Portfolio collapse: Over 3K Houston-area apartments tied to Kalkan Capital are headed to auction as the investor faces $125M in loan defaults.

• Deal drought: Industrial deal volume stalled in Q2 as warehouse vacancies hit 7.1%, the highest since 2014.

• Don’t Loudoun my Louisa! Amazon canceled a proposed $10 billion data center campus in Louisa County after local backlash, despite Virginia already hosting over 70% of the world’s internet traffic.

• Growth streak: Despite rising vacancies driven by new supply and move-outs, industrial demand stayed positive for the 60th quarter.

• Future hub: CBRE and partners broke ground on a 473K SF Fremont project targeting AI and tech tenants.

• Retail buyout: Onyx Partners is buying 119 J.C. Penney stores for $947M in cash, closing a major chapter in the retailer’s post-bankruptcy sell-off. 

• Grocery anchor: Whole Foods will anchor The Mix, a $3B mixed-use project underway in Frisco, Texas.

• OC acquisition: Regency Centers bought five OC retail centers for $357M to expand in a tight coastal market.

• Tower tumble: Once valued at $222M, the Atlanta Financial Center sold for just $45M as vacancy climbs and a potential demolition looms. 

• Leasing spotlight: CBRE has been named the exclusive leasing agent for Manhattan’s historic Paramount Building. 

• Flight to quality: Fisher Phillips leased new offices in LA and Woodland Hills, joining the market’s broader flight-to-quality trend.

• F1 ambitions: Atlantic City greenlit a $3.3B plan to turn a defunct airport into an F1-style racetrack with housing, retail, and luxury car condos.

• New launch: M2G Ventures has launched a new hospitality division, appointing Crescent Real Estate veteran Chris Hanrattie to lead efforts.

A MESSAGE FROM ACRES

Are You Seeing the Full Picture Before You Invest?

Top CRE investors use Acres to surface undervalued, off-market land before the competition catches on. With 4M+ transactions, 1,400+ data layers, and complete land intelligence across 150M+ parcels, Acres delivers what others can’t—unmatched speed, insight, and access.

From zoning and power to risk and ownership, it’s the data advantage that turns hidden potential into secured deals.

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY