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Grocery-Anchored Retail Holds Firm Amid Trade Tensions

With grocery sales up nearly 16% YoY and vacancy at a low 3.5%, grocers like Sprouts, Trader Joe’s, and Erewhon are still expanding.

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Good morning. Grocery-anchored retail continues to outperform the broader sector, even as tariffs and economic uncertainty rattle consumer spending. Investors are leaning in as grocers once again prove their resilience.

Today’s issue is sponsored by Equity Institutional Services—unlock IRA capital for your next raise.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
5,940.46
Pct Chg:
-0.39%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
773.13
Pct Chg:
-0.56%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.481%
Pct Chg:
-0.02
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.34%
Pct Chg:
-0.00
*Data as of 05/17/2025 market close.

Grocery Gold

Grocery-Anchored Retail Remains a Safe Bet Amid Retail Tariff Turbulence

Despite ongoing trade volatility and rising tariffs, grocery-anchored centers continue to attract investment and outperform other retail types.

Grocery stays resilient: Despite reduced but still significant tariffs on Chinese imports (from 145% to 30%), grocery-anchored real estate continues to shine. Grocery sales jumped nearly 16% YoY, and vacancy rates remain low at 3.5%. Retailers like Trader Joe’s, Sprouts, and Erewhon are expanding, bucking the trend of retail retrenchment.

Investors are all in: Grocery-anchored assets captured 31% of all retail acquisitions in Q1 2025, according to JLL — well ahead of malls and other subtypes. Big players are taking note: Nuveen launched a $320M fund focused solely on grocery-anchored centers, and REITs are increasing their stakes in the space.

Why it works: Grocers deliver reliable foot traffic and recession-resistant spending. Their lean operations and segmented offerings across income levels make them highly adaptable. Sales-based rent models also help landlords offset inflation and tariff-driven cost hikes, providing a built-in hedge against volatility.

Headwinds on the horizon: Not all is smooth sailing. Cushman & Wakefield reports nearly 6M SF of negative retail net absorption in Q1 — the worst since the pandemic. Bankruptcies from Big Lots, Party City, Forever 21, and Rite Aid — along with Jack in the Box’s plan to shutter up to 200 stores — signal growing strain. Still, consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Retail’s steady anchor: Grocery-anchored centers continue to be retail’s safest bet — delivering steady returns, foot traffic, and investor confidence even as the rest of the sector weathers policy-driven storms.


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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Get a Quote: A Class-A office in LA received a $22.4 million C-PACE loan to refinance improvements completed during construction. The loan amortizes over 30 years, and proceeds were used to recapture part of the developer’s original investment. (sponsored)

  • Executive unwind: Newmark is buying back $127M worth of shares from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as he follows through on his pledge to fully divest from his private business interests.

  • Adaptive reuse: Vanbarton Group is buying a Midtown Manhattan office building for $140M with plans to convert it into residential units.

  • BTR boom: As homeownership costs skyrocket, Wall Street is doubling down on the BTR market, fueling billions in SFR investments.

  • Prison sentence: Nightingale CEO Elie Schwartz was sentenced to over seven years for misusing $54M in investor funds raised through Crowd Street.

  • Downtown divide: DTLA kicked off 2025 with rising retail and office vacancies, but the housing and hotel sectors showed surprising resilience in an otherwise mixed market.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Commuter boom: Brooklyn, Queens, and Jersey City led the nation in apartment construction over the past decade, as renters sought relief from Manhattan prices without giving up urban access.

  • Multifamily focus: Mesirow closed its latest real estate value fund at $1.25B, marking a 66% increase from its predecessor and doubling down on discounted Class A multifamily assets.

  • Suburban spike: Multifamily sales in suburban Chicago spiked 65% YoY in March, as family offices and non-local investors target the area’s strong fundamentals and less volatile tax environment.

  • Regional risk: AvalonBay is closely monitoring job market uncertainty in its home market of Washington, DC, even as its core coastal portfolio benefits from limited new supply and strong occupancy.

🏭 Industrial

  • Storage sentiment: Self-storage REITs saw flat Q1 performance but remain cautiously optimistic for stronger results later in 2025 as seasonal demand and rental rates begin to rebound.

  • Tax catalyst: A proposed expansion of bonus depreciation could supercharge US manufacturing by allowing companies to deduct full real estate costs upfront.

  • Bio bet: Eli Lilly is eyeing a $5.9B biomanufacturing facility in Houston’s Generation Park, a potential economic windfall that hinges on tax incentives and infrastructure readiness.

  • Data deal: 26North is in late-stage talks to acquire DigitalBridge, the $100B digital infrastructure fund manager, in a move that could reshape the data center investment landscape.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Prime offering: Miami Worldcenter’s fully leased retail component has hit the market, with developers seeking over $300M for the 273 KSF open-air shopping center.

  • Change in leadership: Bath & Body Works has named former Nike executive Daniel Heaf as CEO amid a broader effort to accelerate growth and transformation.

  • Grocery grab: Longpoint has purchased Grand Covina Plaza for $25M, a 112 KSF grocery-anchored retail center near LA.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Sale speculation: Paramount Group is exploring a potential sale or restructuring amid executive exits and scrutiny over millions in undisclosed payments tied to its CEO.

  • Trophy refi: Carr Properties and National Real Estate Advisors secured a $650M SASB loan for Boston’s One Congress tower, highlighting a comeback for single-asset, single-borrower deals.

  • Federal footprint: Despite only a slight reduction in square footage, federal office rent obligations ticked up in April, reflecting a cautious and complex GSA lease strategy.

  • Distress signal: Portland’s tallest office tower, once a premier address, is now half-empty and up for sale at an 80% discount, symbolizing the city’s deep downtown distress.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Wynn withdraws: Wynn Resorts has officially dropped its bid for a NYC casino license, citing political headwinds, rezoning challenges, and better capital uses.

  • Breaking ground: Eric Trump is heading to Vietnam for the groundbreaking of a $1.5B resort development—the Trump Organization's latest international play.

  • Wine country: Boutique hospitality brand Appellation is rolling out four new hotels across Northern California, with a local-first, culinary-forward twist.

Top Investors Are Buying This “Unlisted” Stock

  • SoftBank and Maveron invested in homeownership disruptor Pacaso

  • They’ve made $110M+ with luxury real estate co-ownership

  • Now, after reserving the Nasdaq ticker PCSO, they’re letting investors get a piece for $2.80/share.

This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

On average, 55% of annual apartment demand nationwide occurs in Q2, but leasing seasonality varies widely. Midwest markets like Cleveland and Detroit rely heavily on Q2, while Sun Belt cities see more balanced, year-round demand.


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