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Independent Landlord Rent Collections Hit Post-Pandemic Low
The on-time payment rate for independently operated rentals dipped 20 bps to 83.6%, the lowest in four months.
Jordan B.
July 24, 2025
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Good morning. On-time rent payments slipped again in July, extending a two-year streak of declines for independent landlords. As financial stress builds for renters, small property owners are feeling the squeeze.
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Market Snapshot
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Rental stress
Independent Landlord Rent Payments Dip Again in July, Marking 24th Straight Monthly Decline
July brought more bad news for independent landlords, as on-time rent payments fell again, marking two straight years of decline.
Collection drops again: The share of on-time rent payments in independently operated rental units dropped to 83.6% in July 2025 — a 20 basis point (bps) decline from June. That figure marks a 209 bps year-over-year decrease and continues a troubling 24-month streak of declining performance.
Digging deeper: Though the July drop was modest compared to steeper declines in May (-68 bps) and June (-128 bps), the overall trend remains negative. Compounding the concern: June’s figure was revised downward to 83.8%, showing the deterioration may have been understated initially.
Forecast hits a low: The broader forecast full-payment rate — which factors in late payments and typical late-pay behavior — fell to 93.4%. That’s the weakest reading since December 2020, at the height of the pandemic-era rental disruption.
Property performance: Among rental property types, small multifamily (2–4 unit) buildings led with an 84.0% on-time payment rate. Single-family rentals followed at 83.6%, while larger multifamily units trailed at 82.4%. The 162 bps spread between best and worst performers is the widest since May 2024 — suggesting growing segmentation in the small landlord market.
The regional divide: Western states continue to dominate the top-performing markets. Idaho (93.5%), Hawaii (92.3%), and Alaska (91.6%) lead the nation in on-time payment rates. In fact, eight of the top ten states are located in the West. In contrast, states like West Virginia (-1002 bps YoY), Vermont (-718 bps), and Massachusetts (-675 bps) experienced the most severe declines.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Pressure building: The softening rent collection figures align with wider signs of consumer distress. Rising delinquencies in auto loans, credit cards, and student loans — particularly among younger and lower-income households — are putting added pressure on tenants' ability to pay rent on time.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
Tailored capital: BTR is booming, but its hybrid nature demands a tailored financing approach that traditional lenders often can't provide. (sponsored)
Office momentum: Office attendance is up to 72.6% of pre-COVID levels, fueling a broader CRE rebound.
Debt test: Blackstone is pursuing €500M in financing for a Paris office, testing Europe's office market rebound.
Accidental landlords: Frustrated home sellers are turning unsold listings into rentals, creating unexpected competition for institutional landlords.
Investor access: A new House bill would let more people invest in private markets by passing an SEC test, regardless of income or net worth.
REIT value: REITs offer strong upside due to solid fundamentals, steep discounts, and a history of rebound after downturns.
Public pullback: OPM downsizing signals more office space reductions, tightening demand in the government-leased CRE sector.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
Leadership change: Atlanta Housing’s real estate chief exits as federal budget cuts strain agency operations.
Credit confidence: ACRE has closed its $1B Credit Fund II, betting big on multifamily lending amid tight supply and looming loan maturities.
Sun Belt surge: Apartment demand is outpacing new starts nearly 4 to 1 nationwide, and up to 5.6 to 1 in key Sun Belt cities.
Lease shock: A 450% rent hike tied to a ground lease threatens to displace residents of Carnegie House, one of Midtown Manhattan’s last affordable co-ops.
🏭 Industrial
Space secured: WareSpace expands its Denver footprint to 200K SF with the off-market acquisition of a 129K SF warehouse in Park Hill.
Drug development: AstraZeneca is launching a $50B US expansion, beginning with a major GLP-1 plant in Virginia.
Keep it cool: California leads the US in cold storage with 17% of national revenue and space.
Leasing surge: Industrial leasing and user sales in the Northeast soared 68% in Q2, even as vacancy rose to 7.9%.
Lake makeover: Prologis plans to transform a 40-acre man-made lake in Fort Lauderdale into a $64M industrial park.
Data dispute: OpenAI is moving forward with data center deals, while its $500B Stargate venture with SoftBank remains stalled.
🏬 RETAIL
Luxury wellness: Saint, a private sauna and ice bath brand, signed a 10-year lease at MAG Partners’ Ruby complex in Chelsea.
Spending shift: Retail sales rose in the first half of 2025, but foot traffic lagged as consumers focused more on essentials.
Friendly takeover: A longtime Friendly’s franchisee bought parent company Brix Holdings and plans to expand the chain into the South.
🏢 OFFICE
Tech rise: Emerging US markets like Austin, Pittsburgh, Raleigh-Durham, and Denver are rising tech hubs, driven by talent, affordability, and corporate investment.
MOB mentality: Houston, DC, LA, Chicago, and Manhattan lead US medical office markets by size and investor interest.
Office strain: Delinquencies are rising in the office sector as loan maturities peak, according to Yardi’s July 2025 national report.
DC conversions: Washington, DC has 6.2M SF of office space in conversion, with adaptive reuse poised to cut vacancy rates by over 15%.
Heat mapping: Companies are using AI-driven heat sensors to anonymously track office activity and optimize layouts.
Chef's kiss: Backed by Gordon Ramsay, HexClad is expanding in LA’s Arts District with nearly 39K SF of office and warehouse space.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
Stadium revival: Hawaii is nearing a $650M plan to replace Aloha Stadium with a mixed-use district and new home for UH football.
Charged dining: Tesla opened an LA diner merging EV charging with retro flair to create an immersive brand experience.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Sources: MBA, Zillow, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Monthly home payments are up 86% since 2018, but falling rates and prices may ease the pressure by late 2026. Affordability remains strained as mortgage costs outpace rents and incomes.
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