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Moody’s Reveals Top US Multifamily Markets by Revenue
When examining year-to-date changes in effective revenue, only the Northeast showed positive results.
Jordan B. & Han-Gwon Lung
May 17, 2024
In partnership with
Good morning. Moody's analyzed YTD multifamily revenue in 82 major markets. The Northeast gained the most, while other regions saw declines. Plus, high-supply submarkets see deep rent cuts in Class B and C stock.
Market Snapshot
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MULTIFAMILY MOVES
Moody’s Ranks Regional Multifamily Revenue in 82 Markets
Moody’s just released a YTD ranking of 82 US multifamily markets based on their change in effective revenue, with the Northeast being the only region to report a positive change.
Findings The latest Moody’s CRE multifamily update reveals performance metrics of 82 primary multifamily markets, focusing on effective revenue rather than just rent growth or property sales. Effective revenue, which is the product of occupancy rate and effective rent (net of any concessions), provides a realistic picture of what landlords are actually receiving. Here’s the breakdown.
Source: Moody’s
State of the market: The Northeast emerged as a clear winner, notching a 49-bp increase in effective multifamily revenue. In contrast, the Southern Atlantic, Midwest, Southwest, and West Coast saw revenue drops ranging from 10–59 bps. Nationally, multifamily revenue was down 19 bps YTD.
Zoom in: Vacancy rates fell by 10 basis points in the Northeast, while the Southwestern region saw a 10-basis point rise. Nashville and Greenville each had 20-basis point drops, boosting their revenue. New Haven's rate decreased by 10 basis points, but Wichita's increased by the same amount. Austin's vacancy rate jumped by 50 basis points, negatively affecting its revenue.
Source: Moody’s
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Big picture: Moody's notes that multifamily revenue fluctuations are part of a broader market cycle. Case in point: Austin's lower revenue isn't all bad. As the 55th most rent-constrained Tier 1 market, its rent-to-income ratio is 18.4%, better than New York or Miami. With rents rising 3.3% annually since 2019, renters welcome any decrease. Developers might see less profit now, but Austin's market is set to bounce back with strong job and population growth.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
Picking up the pieces: After a groundbreaking ruling against TikTok, real estate mogul Frank McCourt plans to bid for TikTok’s US assets, valued at $35–$40B.
Fed keeps rates flat: The Federal Reserve maintained the overnight rate this week, citing short-term inflation risks and signaling higher interest rates for longer.
CMBS surge: Special servicing on CMBS loans spiked up to 8.11% in April, with office rates up 53 bps to 10.84%, passing 8% for the first time since 2021.
Redemption woes: Starwood Real Estate Investment Trust (STWD) follows in BREIT’s footsteps in facing high redemption requests. With $1.3B drawn from credit, only $225M is available.
LA property boom: LA County's taxable property values are set to rise by 4.75%, surpassing $2T, with an average home value of $900K.
Private equity pivot: The global PE industry is busy seeking alternatives to IPOs due to a $3T lock-in, as the IPO market continues to struggle with lower activity.
Doom and gloom: Nomura believes that 50 US lenders could fail over the next few years, which lines up with the FDIC’s list of 52 ‘problem banks.’
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
Deal rollercoaster: NYC CRE didn’t have the best Q1 after a 42% drop in sales to $2.9B. Fortunately, multifamily sales were up 23% for the quarter.
A little more affordable: NYC approved a developer's Park Slope rezoning with 305 apartments and 162 income-restricted units, plus green space, by Stellar Management.
Pioneering partnerships: Alvin Rider will develop the $32M Park Manor Senior Residences in Chicago. Owned by Park Manor Christian Church, the project will offer 52 units for seniors.
Banking on multifamily: Vantage Capital Partners bought a 108-unit apartment complex in Hialeah in South Florida for $20.6M, with a $13.1M bank loan.
Multifamily marvel: Hidden Villas, owned by Vigen and Roselyn Haroutunian, plans to demolish 10 residential units and build 168 units in Van Nuys, including 18 affordable units.
🏭 Industrial
Warehouse boom: Large warehouse trades in the Savannah market hit a record $995M, with $25M+ transactions surging 65% last year, as national warehouse activity fell 29%.
Doubling down: Ares Industrial Real Estate Income Trust secured $220M in refinancing for a nationwide 2.1MSF industrial portfolio.
Cash injection: Hillwood's managed to secure $88.3M in refinancing for the 1.2MSF AllianceWestport 25 in DFW as the metroplex’s industrial vacancy rate hit 9.8%.
🏬 RETAIL
Shopping revival: Foot traffic in prime trade areas is expected to match pre-pandemic levels by 3Q24 and exceed them by 2025, as more retailers report sales recovery.
Luxury dilemma: San Francisco's Union Square faces a 21% retail vacancy rate after a $1.5M investment, prompting city leaders to seek revitalization plans.
Sniping shops: Eric Benaim, CEO of Modern Spaces, purchased $24M worth of retail buildings in Miami's Wynwood district, indicating growing investor confidence in the sector.
🏢 OFFICE
Print slimdown: Dallas Morning News will downsize print operations, reducing its 85-employee staff by 60% and saving $5M annually.
Tower troubles: Occupancy at the 34-story Equitable Plaza in LA dropped to 57% as the company faces a $87.5M loan default, with top tenants leaving.
Deal of the day: Nvidia (NVDA) purchased a 550KSF campus in Santa Clara from Preylock Holdings for $374M, with 2MSF of development rights.
Handing over the keys: Chicago’s struggling Loop office owners are pursuing deed-in-lieu of foreclosure on up to $127M in CMBS loans, facing $137.8M in debt.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
Groundbreaking development: Houston's new mixed-use development, The RO on Buffalo Speedway, features the first Auberge Resorts Collection hotel and more.
Resignation reversal: Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) reinstated two directors after a failed reelection bid, with a controversial proxy campaign by an activist investor involved.
📈 CHART OF THE DAY
In fast-growing submarkets, Class B and C properties experienced the deepest apartment rent cuts at 3.2% and 4.7%. Areas with significant new supply saw the worst declines, while areas with minimal new supply saw higher rents.
Surprisingly, Class A properties, despite facing the most competition, enjoyed 2.6% higher rents, except in cases where new deliveries exceeded 10% of existing stock, which resulted in a 2% rent cut.
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