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NYC and Miami Lead the RTO Comeback
Office visits are bouncing back fast—New York and Miami have all but erased the pandemic gap.
Jordan B.
August 19, 2025
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Good morning. Office visits are bouncing back fast—New York and Miami have all but erased the pandemic gap. JPMorgan’s $3B tower and surging office visits show the city leading a nationwide rebound—with Miami and even San Francisco catching up.
Today’s issue is brought to you by Bequest Asset Management—earn steady 8–10% returns, backed by US mortgage notes for stability, transparency, and cash flow.
🎙️This week on No Cap: Jack and Alex sit down with MaryAnne Gilmartin to explore the twists, risks, and breakthroughs that took her from Brooklyn beginnings to leading skyline-defining projects in Manhattan.
Market Snapshot
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FOOT TRAFFIC
Return-to-Office Momentum Picks Up in NYC and Miami
Office visits are bouncing back fast—New York and Miami have all but erased the pandemic gap.
By the numbers: Per Placer.ai, July 2025 office visits in New York City were up 1.3% from July 2019—marking the first full recovery among major U.S. cities. Miami followed closely, down just 0.1%. Both cities’ recoveries are fueled by the finance sector, where employers have tightened in-office requirements. Miami’s expanding finance scene, bolstered by HQ relocations, is helping close the gap.
Office visits, July 2025 compared to 2019. Chart courtesy of Placer.ai
Leading the way: Nothing signals Wall Street’s confidence in the city more than JPMorgan Chase’s new 2.5MSF headquarters at 270 Park Avenue—set to open this fall—which anchors Midtown East’s revival. With a $3 billion investment, the 60-story tower will offer high-end perks like 19 dining venues, meditation rooms, and a luxury fitness center—a clear signal that premium amenities are now table stakes in the office arms race.
Closing the gap: Placer.ai’s nationwide index shows office visits were down just 21.8% from July 2019—the narrowest gap since COVID began. That’s also a 10.7% improvement year-over-year, suggesting broader adoption of hybrid work models with more frequent in-office presence.
Beyond the coast: Atlanta and Dallas are also gaining ground, with visit gaps down to 14.8% and 18.3%, respectively—both outperforming the national average. Meanwhile, San Francisco posted a 21.6% year-over-year surge in office visits, buoyed by rising rents, improved sentiment, and retail/dining comebacks. Still, Denver remains an outlier, down 40% from 2019 and holding onto its remote-first identity.
Leasing heats up: Trophy office space in Manhattan is being snapped up quickly. Deloitte grabbed 800K SF at Hudson Yards before its tower even opened. Overall, leasing activity hit 12.2M SF Q1—the strongest since 2019. Midtown East zoning changes, passed in 2017, are also fueling new trophy development near Grand Central.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Big picture: The return to office is no longer just a trend—it's becoming the new baseline, at least in finance-heavy cities. With major employers reinvesting in physical space and worker routines normalizing, markets like New York and Miami are showing that the office still matters—just not in the same way it used to.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
Soho deal: MCR Hotels is taking Soho House private in a $2.7B deal backed by Apollo, aiming to boost growth and preserve the brand's cultural cachet.
Lease bots: AI is rapidly reshaping the apartment industry by automating tasks like showings, rent rolls, and renewals.
Record quarter: CRE CLO issuance hit $8.9B in Q2 2025—its highest level since 2022—as multifamily loans surged and delinquency rates modestly improved.
Legal firestorm: 41 former Fannie Mae employees are suing CEO Priscilla Almodovar and FHFA head Bill Pulte for defamation and wrongful termination.
Tax credit: The U.S. Treasury released new rules for solar and wind projects to qualify for federal tax credits, replacing the clear 5% spend test with a less-defined “facts and circumstances” standard.
Tariff loopholes: Tariff impacts remain milder than expected due to duty-free imports and transshipment tactics.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
Supply slump: Seven major US apartment markets are bracing for 60%+ drops in new supply over the next year.
Cost gap: Affordability pressures are fueling a geographic divide in housing demand, with renters gravitating to urban cores while homebuyers are pushed to the outskirts.
Legal win: A judge has ruled that Beverly Hills must process a proposed 19-story apartment and hotel tower under the “builder’s remedy,” clearing the way for what could become the city’s tallest building.
Stuck states: Americans are moving less than ever, deepening economic divides and reshaping demand across housing and CRE.
🏭 Industrial
Upcoming inventory: Investors are pouring capital into new data center developments, sidelining acquisitions of existing facilities despite rising demand.
Big refi: AEW Capital Management secured a $250M floating-rate bridge loan for a seven-building industrial portfolio.
Strategic expansion: Alterra IOS acquired a 5.1-acre industrial site with 30K SF of warehouse space in Otay Mesa, San Diego.
🏬 RETAIL
Branch boom: Despite digital dominance, major banks like PNC, Chase, and Bank of America plan to open 870 new branches by 2030.
Retail growth: US retail sales rose 6% in July 2025, led by e-commerce and apparel gains, though electronics and department stores continued to lag.
🏢 OFFICE
Tower takeover: MetroNational bought the former Marathon Oil HQ in Houston, marking its largest acquisition in a decade.
Market split: Midtown saw sharp contrasts as 750 Lexington faced foreclosure while 590 Madison sold in a $1B deal amid major rezoning and multifamily shifts.
Mixed signals: LA offices face plunging values and loan stress, offset by new housing wins and a revived megaproject bid.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
Foreclosure wave: Two of San Francisco’s largest hotels, Hilton Union Square and Parc 55, are headed for foreclosure amid a wave of Bay Area hotel defaults.
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📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Discretionary retailers are weathering economic headwinds better than staples, thanks to wider margins, stronger financials, and affluent consumers buoyed by a robust stock market.
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