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NYC’s Multifamily Conduit Distress Rate Hits 8.5%

NYC’s multifamily conduit distress rate hit 8.5% in 2024, with older rent-stabilized buildings struggling.

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Good morning. NYC’s multifamily conduit distress rate hit 8.5% in 2024, with older rent-stabilized buildings struggling amid rising costs and limited rent growth potential.

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500
GSPC
5,861.57
Pct Chg:
-1.59%
FTSE NAREIT
FNER
797.79
Pct Chg:
+0.62%
10Y Treasury
TNX
4.25%
Pct Chg:
-0.037
SOFR
30-DAY AVERAGE
4.328
Pct Chg:
0.0%
*Data as of 02/27/2024 market close.

RESEARCH & MARKETS

Multifamily CMBS Issuance Quadruples in NYC

New York City's multifamily CMBS market saw a major issuance spike in 2024, but distress levels are also rising, particularly for older buildings.

Issuance surges: A report from KBRA reveals that multifamily conduit issuance in NYC soared to $6.7 billion in 2024—four times the previous year's total and the highest since 2019. The sector accounted for 27% of the year’s total multifamily issuance nationwide and 20.5% of all conduit issuance in the city.

Distress levels climb: While issuance surged, distress also worsened. By the end of 2024, the distress rate for NYC multifamily conduit loans—those delinquent or in special servicing—reached 8.5%. Overall conduit distress in the city jumped to 14.4%, with multifamily loans making up 43% of that total.

Older buildings in focus: Pre-1974 buildings were hit hardest, with distress rates soaring to 25.1% by balance, compared to just 2.9% for properties built after 2000. The Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019 continues to create challenges for rent-stabilized properties. Limited rent increases, coupled with rising costs, make it harder for owners to maintain profitability or attract buyers willing to navigate regulatory hurdles.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Looking ahead: Despite distress, demand for NYC apartments is strengthening. A 0.4% population increase and a 1.03% rise in employment contributed to a projected 2.7% rent growth in 2025, following slight rent declines in late 2024. Return-to-office trends are also fueling renewed investor interest in the asset class.


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✍️ Editor’s Picks

  • Cash buyers dominate: Nearly 50% of luxury homes in 2024 were bought with cash, as high-net-worth buyers remain unfazed by mortgage rates and economic headwinds. (sponsored)

  • Deal of the day: RCG Ventures acquired 100 retail properties from Global Net Lease (GNL) for $1.8B, advancing GNL’s shift to a single-tenant net lease model.

  • Rates still restrictive: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rates should remain high to curb inflation, though he expects two cuts in 2025 amid economic uncertainty.

  • Latest $1B fund: Neuberger Berman closed its $1B real estate secondaries fund, surpassing its $800M target, as demand for secondary market liquidity grows.

  • Paid parking era: Atlanta landlords are converting free parking into paid lots to offset rising costs, with rates surging as demand returns amid office vacancies.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

  • Sold in Bethesda: JBG Smith sold its only Bethesda multifamily property as the buyer expands its regional apartment portfolio with a fifth acquisition in two years.

  • Facing the Senate: Bill Pulte, Trump’s FHFA nominee, is facing Senate scrutiny on Fannie Mae privatization, which raises concerns over government stock sales and market stability.

  • Changing rent trends: Sun Belt rent declines are slowing, while Midwest cities like New Haven and Omaha see double-digit rent hikes amid strong job growth and limited supply.

🏭 Industrial

  • Port activity surges: North American ports handled 61.3M TEUs in 2024, driven by shippers front-loading freight, while industrial leasing near ports remains sluggish but poised for recovery.

  • Southern expansion: SL Industrial Partners acquired a 293.7K SF Greensboro industrial asset for $29.5M, expanding its North Carolina portfolio beyond 6 MSF.

  • Wise investments: Investcorp acquired two industrial portfolios in Minneapolis and Baltimore, totaling 27 properties and 2.7 MSF, expanding its US logistics footprint.

🏬 RETAIL

  • Mall redevelopment woes: Office-heavy mall conversions face distress as Stockdale’s $550M Horton project in San Diego risks foreclosure, while Alexandria exits its biotech redevelopment plans.

  • West Coast best coast: Federal Realty (FRT) acquired Monterey’s 674K SF Del Monte Center from AAT, expanding its West Coast footprint in an affluent but underserved market.

  • Dallas future unclear: A last-minute land donation could keep Neiman Marcus' downtown Dallas flagship open, but new owner Saks Global still plans to close the store.

🏢 OFFICE

  • Full-time RTO: The SEC mandated a full-time office return for all workers starting April 14 despite SEC union opposition, aligning with Trump’s push to end federal remote work.

  • Demand rebound: Larger office leases surged in 2024, with tech companies leading expansions, while prime Class A spaces in amenity-rich districts attracted most relocations and renewals.

  • Surrendered asset: Nightingale signed over Miami Beach’s Lincoln Place to Granite Point after CEO Elie Schwartz admitted to a $54M crowdfunding fraud scheme.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

  • Refinancing secured: Ashford Hospitality (AHT) refinanced 16 hotels with a $580M loan, extending debt maturities and eliminating corporate-level debt amid ongoing financial restructuring.


📈 CHART OF THE DAY

According to CoStar, employment levels in office, industrial, retail, and government sectors officially surpassed pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

Retail and hospitality caught up last, while office-using jobs continued to lead the recovery, followed by industrial-using, then government, education, and healthcare.


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