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Private Real Estate May Have Finally Found Its Floor
From lender confidence to transaction momentum, the data suggests the market bottom is behind us.
Jordan B.
August 27, 2025
Together with
Good morning. Private real estate may have found its floor. After four straight quarters of gains, easier lending, and a pickup in deal flow, the sector is showing its strongest recovery signals since the 2022 downturn.
Today’s issue is brought to you by 1031 Crowdfunding—helping investors access institutional-quality real estate through tax-advantaged vehicles.
🎙️This week on No Cap: Brookfield’s Ben Brown reveals how he navigated the GFC, led $10B+ takeovers like GGP and Forest City, and where he’s betting big today.
Market Snapshot
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Recovery Mode
Private Real Estate May Have Finally Found Its Floor
After two years of volatility, private real estate is flashing signs of recovery, with returns, lending conditions, and transaction activity all moving in the right direction.
Returns back in the black: Private real estate returns, as measured by the NCREIF ODCE Index, have now been positive for four consecutive quarters—marking the clearest rebound since the post-COVID downturn. Cohen & Steers points to Q2 2024 as the likely bottom, noting this level of consistency historically marks the start of sustained recoveries.
Credit is loosening: Commercial real estate lending standards are loosening. According to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, only 9% of net respondents reported tighter standards in mid-2025. While lenders still demand discipline—like more equity and pre-leasing on new builds—they’re increasingly comfortable financing acquisitions. Slower construction starts are reinforcing the case for existing assets.
Transactions picking up: CRE transaction volume has now grown year-over-year for five straight quarters. That’s the longest stretch of sustained growth since the market began cooling in 2022. Institutional investors—many of whom had been sitting on the sidelines—are stepping back in as rate clarity improves and valuations recalibrate.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Big picture: The private real estate cycle appears to have turned the corner. With steady returns, friendlier lending, and rising transactions, conditions are lining up for investors who have been waiting for the bottom to deploy capital.
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✍️ Editor’s Picks
BTR Investing: The BTR market has seen rapid growth, driven by rising housing costs, shifting renter preferences, and a national housing shortage (sponsored)
Private edge: Private non-traded REITs pulled in 45% more capital than their publicly registered counterparts in the first half of 2025.
Deal flow: New York’s Tri-State CRE sales hit $8.8B in Q2, led by a 50% jump in retail, while industrial and office also posted strong gains.
Trophy towers: Investors have poured $3B into refinancing NY office towers as trophy assets tighten vacancies and corporate return-to-office policies boost demand.
Unkept promises: Two decades after Katrina, New Orleans relies on tourism while broader CRE and economic growth remain stalled.
Spiritual development: Churches are bucking attendance declines with new construction that adds community-friendly amenities.
Practical living: Luxury amenities are losing appeal as students opt for cheaper rentals with practical spaces, pushing rent growth down.
🏘️ MULTIFAMILY
Capital moves: Apartment sales rose 1% YoY to $10.6B in July as multifamily prices inched up and major portfolio trades drove activity.
Rent freeze: NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s pledge to freeze rents on stabilized apartments is alarming small landlords, who warn the policy could force them to sell.
Affordable boost: Thrive Living secured a $65M J.P. Morgan loan to build a 290-unit modular affordable housing project in East Hollywood.
Coastal deal: A Pasadena investor bought Marina del Rey’s 198-unit Villa del Mar for $62M, aiming to boost income through slips, parking, and amenities.
Zoning barrier: Over half of Colorado’s residential land blocks multifamily housing, tightening affordable supply.
🏭 Industrial
Tenant demand: Industrial move-ins hit 177M SF in early 2025, led by 3PLs and manufacturers, though net absorption stayed weak.
Investment engine: CoreWeave secured $4B from Blue Owl and partners to build a $6B Lancaster, PA data center campus backed by the White House and Nvidia.
Import impact: Higher U.S. tariffs are squeezing seaport industrial markets and raising costs for everyday goods.
Loan secured: Woodglen Investments secured a $23M loan from Catal Group to build a 788-unit self-storage project near Downtown West Palm Beach.
Data financing: Aligned Data Centers secured over $1B from Blackstone to fund expansion.
🏬 RETAIL
Immersive retail: Netflix is opening its first immersive entertainment-and-retail venues, “Netflix House,” this fall in Philadelphia and Dallas.
Import duties: President Trump said furniture imports will face new tariffs within 50 days, adding fresh strain to retailers already hit by broader trade levies.
Rapid expansion: Aldi is converting Winn-Dixie stores and opening new locations at record pace, aiming to add 200+ stores in 2025.
🏢 OFFICE
Bank bid: Dallas is offering Scotiabank $2.7M in incentives to establish a 100K SF U.S. hub that could bring 1,000+ high-paying jobs.
Landmark lease: Siemens Energy signed a 243K SF lease at Lake Nona Town Center in Orlando, marking the city’s largest office deal in a decade.
Space search: The federal government is seeking a new 240K–280K SF office for the National Science Foundation in Alexandria, slashing its footprint by more than half.
Eagle eyes: American Eagle Outfitters is growing its headquarters at 63 Madison Avenue in Manhattan, adding 54K SF to bring its total footprint to 392K SF.
🏨 HOSPITALITY
Casino prospects: Wynn Resorts and Boyd Gaming signaled interest in building multibillion-dollar casinos in Georgia if lawmakers move to legalize gambling.
Asset sale: Ashford Hospitality Trust sold two hotels—Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake for $27M and Residence Inn Evansville East for $6M—to cut debt and boost cash flow.
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📈 CHART OF THE DAY
Post-COVID real estate performance was largely dictated by being overweight industrial, but looking ahead, retail has surprisingly emerged as the top performer. The next cycle is likely to reward asset selection as much as sector exposure.
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